#subjective-logic

A Formal Theory of Narratives as Belief-Weighted Causal Graphs

An operational, computable definition of a market narrative as a time-indexed, belief-weighted causal graph of measurable events, each carrying a two-dimensional belief state — a likelihood together with a degree of confidence. The paper develops the full belief calculus (subjective-logic opinions, evidence fusion with a redundancy guard, three-channel causal propagation, and narrative decay) and proves the belief dynamics are stable, with sustained conviction equal to the ratio of evidence inflow to forgetting rate.