- Jun 2, 2026
A Formal Theory of Narratives as Belief-Weighted Causal Graphs
An operational, computable definition of a market narrative as a time-indexed, belief-weighted causal graph of measurable events, each carrying a two-dimensional belief state — a likelihood together with a degree of confidence. The paper develops the full belief calculus (subjective-logic opinions, evidence fusion with a redundancy guard, three-channel causal propagation, and narrative decay) and proves the belief dynamics are stable, with sustained conviction equal to the ratio of evidence inflow to forgetting rate.
- May 29, 2026
Yield Slippage and the Equimarginal Allocation of Capital Across Decentralized Lending Pools
A static, single-period model for optimizing capital allocation across risk-free decentralized lending pools, accounting for yield slippage and token incentives through a marginal-yield framework. Protocol risk is introduced as a structural placeholder, with a full risk-aware treatment deferred to future work.